Google Hints Android Growth Hits Dead End

Wednesday, December 8, 2010
By OP Editor

Could Android be at the end of its technology lifecycle? The latest activation numbers from Google hints it.

Android growth S Curve dead end

From Spring this year, due to Verizon’s free android phone offers where Android phones are buy one and get one free, Google can’t wait to tell the press about increases of Android activations. On August 4, 2010 Google CEO Eric Schmidt told reporters that Android, the fake iOS, has crossed the 200,000 per day in terms of activation. Are iPhone users totally screwed?

At the latest Android 2.3 Gingerbread announcement this week, Google changes its tunes. On Monday, the fake-iPhone maker from Mountain view releases their latest activation number. Instead of consistently using number of phones activated per day, Google describes current numbers at 1.5 million phones a week, hoping that people can’t do the math.

The latest Android activation numbers is about 214,000 per day, not much more than the last announcement of “above” 200,000. Translation: there is almost no acceleration since early August, coming into the busy holiday season. Oh, and those sales even includes the new Android Samsung Galaxy Tab tablet.

Technology Lifecycle: Android S-Curve

In business terms, the Android adoption might be at the end of the S curve growth. The stalled sales could mean that Android is reaching the high point of the technology lifecycle bell curve:

Android growth technology adoption lifecycle

So, what caused the slow down heading into the busy holiday season? Is it the beginning of the end of the counterfeit platform so dry on ideas it makes Google employee dress like Steve Jobs & Jony Ive to film their copy of Apple iPad, iPhone 4 ads?

Did Verizon drop the Android buy one and get one free deal? Is it the Android fragmentation? Is it realization that Android is not open? Is the Rebel Alliance beginning to resist the Android dark side?

Maybe it’s the “leaked” hints that the genuine Apple iPhone 4 is coming to Verizon.

via fortune.cnn

First chart by OP Editor. Second chart Technology Adoption Lifecycle model. Drawn in OmniGraffle and then trimmed in Apple Preview.


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Tags: Analysis, Android, Apple, Fail, iPhone

4 Responses to “Google Hints Android Growth Hits Dead End”

  1. Don

    I’m hoping that Apple’s will win its ‘multi-touch’ patents, as well as Oracle will their suit against Android. Many legal experts say that Android is living on borrowed time and I hope so. It is nothing but a blatant rip off of iOS. I knew it was coming and sure enough, Googles latest piece of a fake iPhone, the Nexus S, features a gyroscope. Mmmmm…. I wonder where they got that brilliant idea?

    Google is a closed system, but one that loves to pretend that its all about being ‘open’, something I’ll believe when they open up their search engine.

  2. zodiacfever

    not sure why any of you wants google to fail anything. Apple actually owes alot of its popularity to google, who are giving the IOS platform most of its interesting features through all the google services that are offered for free.

    Besides, they all borrow from each other. The only thing Google really copied from Apple was the big touch screen and an App store. On the other hand, apple recently introduced a sort of multitasking that is VERY similar in implementation, to what google is doing (though inferior IMO), backgroung pictures, folders, voice controls and ads. Complaining about manufacturers adding a gyroscope to their phone is also somewhat funny. This of course mean that Apple should never add NFC chips, curved displays, or dual-core processors right?

    • Thanks for the laugh.

      “giving the IOS platform most of its interesting features”

      Do I have to show you what Android looks like before Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone in 2007? Hint: in the times before the iPhone, Android was a RIM knockoff.


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